The View from Nairobi: Kenya’s Withdrawal from the Adani Deal & the future of India-Kenya ties 

Kenya Airport union members protest against a planned 30-year lease of Nairobi’s international airport to the Adani Group.|Source: EPA Images

On 21 November, Kenya’s President William Ruto, in a State of the Nation address, announced the cancellation of two major deals involving the Indian billionaire Gautam Adani. The President claimed that the decision was based on “new information provided by investigative agencies and partner nations,” referring to Adani being indicted in New York in an alleged multi-billion dollar fraud and bribery scheme. The deals included the expansion of Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, where the Adani Group would have invested USD 1.85 billion in exchange for a 30-year lease to run the airport, and a USD 736 million deal with the Kenya Electrical Transmission Company (KETRACO) to construct power transmission lines. However, Adani Energy Solutions later claimed it was not involved in any deal to manage or upgrade a Kenyan airport.

While President Ruto’s decision was met with approval from lawmakers in parliament, his association with Adani has long been controversial in Kenya. There were frequent protests against the Adani deals over concerns about their alleged lack of transparency and poor value for taxpayers. In addition, some were anxious that critical infrastructure deals involving the Adani Group would harm Kenya’s relationships with US and global financial institutions, and even pose risks for Kenya’s stability, reputation, and economic future. Politicians such as Member of Parliament John Kaguchia publicly warned that continued engagement with the Indian conglomerate could jeopardize support from the US and international financiers like the IMF and World Bank.

Though the President presented his decision to withdraw from the deal as a stance of zero tolerance for corruption, many in Kenya view it as a short-sighted attempt to appease domestic and international audiences. In fact, President Ruto and his government had previously defended the deal, despite fraud allegations raised earlier by US short-seller Hindenburg Research in 2023. Notably, on the morning of the announcement, Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi informed senators that he anticipated the KETRACO contract to proceed, asserting that no evidence of corruption or fraud existed in its awarding.

Kenya and India have historically maintained cordial bilateral relations. However, protests against the Adani deal sparked tensions not only against India but also against the Indian community in Kenya. Unofficial sources say that resentment grew in parts of Kenyan society over the perceived lack of participation from Indian Kenyans in anti-Adani protests, fueling perceptions that they sided with India despite being Kenyan nationals.

The potential deal with the Adani Group would have marked the conglomerate’s first major breakthrough in Kenya. Indian companies like Tata Group, Tech Mahindra, and Apollo Tyres have already contributed significantly across sectors such as ICT, infrastructure, healthcare, and manufacturing, aligning with Kenya’s economic goals and strengthening bilateral ties.

China is also a major player in Kenya’s infrastructure sector, having funded the Standard Gauge Railway and major road projects. Increasingly partnering with Indian firms allows Kenya to reduce over-dependence on any single investor country and diversify its financing sources while strengthening its negotiating power. The withdrawal highlights broader challenges in Kenya’s pursuit of Vision 2030 and Big Four Agenda, which aim to transform the country into a middle-income economy through large-scale infrastructure development. Balancing the need to attract new partners, like Indian investors, with maintaining credibility among existing ones, including China, is a delicate challenge. Hasty policy reversals, such as the Adani deal withdrawal, could strain trust and impact Kenya’s ability to negotiate critical deals effectively.

Through trade and investments, China has now built an unmatched presence across Africa. India has also been making notable moves to tap into the Africa Opportunity. Strategically located on the East African coast overlooking the Indian Ocean region and the wider Indo-Pacific, Kenya is poised to play a key role in this critical region where both these Asian powers are vying to expand their strategic influence. At this stage of its development journey, Kenya must cautiously position Indian and Chinese investments as complementary, safeguarding partnerships that advance its economic and geopolitical objectives​.

Over time, Kenya and India have developed a multi-faceted partnership, increasing security cooperation, trade, investment, and regular high-level exchanges. Despite occasional tensions between African Kenyans and Kenyan Indians, ties between the maritime neighbours have remained largely cordial.  India has been playing a leading role in advocating for Global South interests, and it has re-energised its outreach to Africa, focusing on "exporting its digital revolution," widening its development partnership portfolio, and enhancing trade, investment and security ties. With growing convergence of interests, Kenya and India are poised to further strengthen their strategic relationship.

Shama Shah is a Kenya-based Security Analyst specializing in counterterrorism and security monitoring, with a focus on the East African region. With experience across startups, international security firms, and non-profits in Kenya, India, and the U.S., she has supported research on journey threat assessments and pre-market entry evaluations. She holds certifications in Hostile Environment Awareness Training (HEAT) from the Kofi Annan Centre and peacekeeping training from the Austrian Centre for Peace. She also holds an MSc in Occupational Psychology from the University of Nottingham and a BA in Psychology from the United States International University, Kenya.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).