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Trudeau Resigns: Cautious Optimism, Amusement, and Indifference in India
Under growing pressure from his party to quit, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he will resign once the Liberal Party chooses a new leader. Trudeau's increasing unpopularity with Canadians had become a challenge for his party ahead of federal elections scheduled for later this year. Last month, Trudeau’s long-time ally and Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned abruptly, accusing Trudeau of failing to act decisively in the face of threats from U.S. President-elect Trump to impose steep tariffs on Canada unless Ottawa enhanced security on their shared border. Trump has also been making statements about using economic force to make Canada the “51st state” of the U.S. Having previously dismissed this threat as typical Trumpian bluster, Canadian Liberal politicians have now begun frantically issuing statements defending Canada’s sovereignty. Trudeau’s resignation comes as his critics allege that his focus on supposed foreign interference by India was a ploy to divert attention from brewing internal party rebellion. With Trudeau having presided over the breakdown of Canada’s relationship with India, his resignation has sparked a mix of cautious optimism and indifference in India. Some reports suggest that Indian-origin Transport Minister, Anita Anand, is the frontrunner to replace Trudeau as party chief. However, many in India believe that bilateral ties will only see some improvement if Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre becomes Prime Minister after fresh elections. Even with Poilievre, there is limited hope, as the growing influence of radical Khalistan sympathizers in Canadian politics now spans across party lines.
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US NSA Jake Sullivan in New Delhi
In what was likely his final official visit abroad as the Biden Administration’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan announced that the U.S. is working towards removing "long-standing regulations that have prevented civil nuclear cooperation between India's leading nuclear entities and U.S. companies." Reports suggest this could involve the delisting of three Indian government-run institutions: the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Centre (IGCAR), and Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL). Additionally, Sullivan revealed that updates to U.S. missile technology control export policies, recently signed by President Biden, are expected to significantly boost U.S.-India commercial space cooperation.
During his visit, Sullivan met with Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, and India’s NSA Ajit Doval. He noted that the "deep personal and professional" relationship he built with Doval has been instrumental in elevating the U.S.-India partnership.Interestingly, this praise comes after Doval was summoned by a New York court over allegations of involvement in an attempt to assassinate a U.S.-based Khalistani extremist.
Lately, the Biden administration’s relations with India has seen growing Indian mistrust over the perceived sheltering of Khalistani separatists in the West and the U.S.' approach towards Bangladesh. However, just days before the Trump administration takes over, and as India and China disengage at their border, and with the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau on his way out, Sullivan’s announcements in New Delhi have somewhat helped reaffirm the strategic importance of the U.S.-India partnership.
Taliban in the News: Prisoner Swap with the U.S., India’s Top Diplomat Holds Talks, Border Clashes with Pakistan
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden administration is in talks with the Taliban to exchange three Americans detained in Afghanistan for at least one high-profile prisoner, Muhammad Rahim al Afghani, an associate of Osama bin Laden, currently held in Guantanamo Bay.
Separately, in what is India’s highest-level engagement with the Taliban yet, Foreign Secretary Misri met Taliban Foreign Minister Muttaqi in Dubai. India maintains that it must engage with the Taliban to sustain its relationship with the Afghan people and deliver humanitarian assistance. The two sides also discussed strengthening cooperation in cricket (as England mulls boycotting Afghanistan in the Champions Trophy), as well as trade and the transfer of Indian aid through the Chabahar port in Iran. The Taliban government "underlined its sensitivities to India's security concerns" — a reference to Pakistan’s use of terrorism against India.
Ironically, this comes at a time when Pakistan, the Taliban’s erstwhile patron, is engaged in active border clashes with Afghanistan, with both sides carrying out attacks against each other.
Elon Vs Europe
Ahead of Germany’s February election, tech billionaire and advisor to the incoming Trump administration, Elon Musk hosted Alternative für Deutschland party’s chancellor candidate Alice Weidel for a podcast style, free flowing discussion on his platform, X. Musk had previously endorsed the AfD as the only party that can “save Germany” and called Chancellor Scholz an “incompetent fool,” seemingly critical of successive German governments’ immigration and energy policies. Musk has also re-ignited the debate over Pakistani grooming gangs scandal in the UK, sharing a flurry of posts and memes on the Starmer government, accusing the Prime Minister of being complicit in the cover up of exploitation of children, and enabling these rape gangs through political correctness and vote bank politics.
Germany, France, Spain, Norway, the UK and the EU have accused Musk of political interference by supporting right-leaning “reactionary” movements such as the AfD in Germany and Reform in the UK.
Even as Musk has been critical of unskilled immigration in Europe and the US, he vowed to “go to war” to defend the H1B Visa programme that brings mostly Indian top talent to the Silicon Valley. Fissures emerged in the MAGA camp over skilled Indian immigration to the US, with racist tweets targeting Indian Americans following the appointment of Sriram Krishnan as President-elect Trump’s AI advisor.
China’s Mega Dam in Tibet
China is building the world’s largest dam, a USD 127 billion project, in southeastern Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, just before it enters India as the Brahmaputra. While Beijing has not disclosed many details, its foreign ministry claims the dam will not negatively impact downstream areas. However, there are serious concerns about the potential consequences for India and Bangladesh, including risks to water flow, ecology, and livelihoods.
The dam could also strengthen China’s leverage over its territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as South Tibet. Arunachal’s Deputy Chief Minister claims that India’s proposed Siang Dam in the state could somewhat counterbalance the Chinese project, though some local resistance has delayed its construction.
Notably, the Chinese dam is located in a seismically active zone. The January 7 earthquake in Tibet, which claimed over 126 lives, has drawn attention to the impact of environmental degradation in Tibet, including reckless damming, mining and deforestation. India’s Ministry of External Affairs expressed solidarity with the victims in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, avoiding any direct mention of China in its statement.
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